The global prevalence of atopic dermatitis among children is expected to rise significantly over the next five decades, according to new projections based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). This chronic inflammatory skin condition, which typically begins in early childhood, is increasingly burdening healthcare systems worldwide.
Led by Luyao Qiu from the National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders at Chongqing Medical University in China, the study highlights a growing global health challenge. The findings, published in the Lancet Regional Health journal, point to a continued rise in the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with atopic dermatitis over the next 50 years.
Study Overview
Atopic dermatitis, a condition marked by chronic itching and inflammation, often begins in infancy, with approximately 80% of cases appearing before the age of six. The research team noted the importance of understanding the full extent of the disease burden to better inform healthcare planning, resource allocation, and prevention strategies. Their study offers updated estimates on the prevalence of pediatric atopic dermatitis, along with projections extending to 2050.
Using the GBD 2021 dataset, Qiu and colleagues analyzed trends in the incidence of atopic dermatitis and its associated DALYs in children under the age of 14. The study’s comprehensive approach included demographic analysis by country, sex, region, and sociodemographic index (SDI). By employing a Bayesian age-period-cohort model, the team developed forecasts for future incidence rates of the disease.
Key Findings
In 2021, the GBD study estimated that there were 317.8 million children worldwide, with 10.2 million new cases of atopic dermatitis reported globally. This represents a 4.8% increase in the number of cases since 1990. However, the incidence rate per 100,000 population has dropped slightly, from 560.0 in 1990 to 507.2 in 2021. Despite this decline in overall incidence, the researchers found that certain age groups, particularly children aged 2 to 4 years, experienced the highest incidence rates both in 1990 and in 2021.
Moreover, females consistently exhibited higher rates of the condition than males across all age cohorts, a pattern that remains unchanged over the years.
Projections for 2050
Looking ahead, the study predicts a significant, though relatively modest, decrease in new cases of atopic dermatitis among children. By 2050, the research team forecasts 9.3 million new cases globally, a reduction of approximately 11.5% from 2021 levels. Despite this decrease in new cases, the overall burden of the disease is expected to grow due to rising DALYs, which represent the years lost to both premature death and disability.
While the number of new cases is expected to decline for most age groups, the incidence rates are projected to rise for younger children, particularly those under the age of 5 and those aged 5 to 9. In contrast, incidence rates are expected to drop for children aged 10 to 14 years.
Children aged 2 to 4 years are expected to remain the most affected age group, a trend that aligns with previous studies suggesting that the highest burden of atopic dermatitis occurs during the early years of life. This heightened susceptibility during infancy and early childhood is thought to be linked to the developing immune system.
Challenges and Implications
Although advancements in treatment and changes in lifestyle may contribute to a slight reduction in the incidence of atopic dermatitis over the next three decades, the increase in DALYs indicates persistent challenges in managing the condition. The study’s authors point to several factors that could exacerbate the disease burden, including complications like asthma exacerbations, severe skin infections, and mental health issues. Additionally, the aging global population may further contribute to the rising impact of atopic dermatitis, as individuals with the condition live longer lives.
“The rise in DALYs suggests that while the number of new cases may decrease, the overall impact of atopic dermatitis will intensify in the coming decades,” said Qiu. “Further research is urgently needed to investigate the determinants of this growing burden and to develop effective prevention, management, and treatment strategies.”
In conclusion, the study underscores the importance of addressing the growing burden of atopic dermatitis among children. As the number of new cases decreases, the long-term impact on individuals and healthcare systems is expected to increase, making it critical for ongoing research and intervention efforts to mitigate the condition’s lasting effects.
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